Canonical page: https://sequoia-research.com/writing/best-dst-investments-lease-rollover-exposure-analyzer Author: Sequoia Research Published: 2026-10-17T06:21:05.180Z Updated: 2026-10-17T06:21:05.180Z Interactive tool: https://sequoia-research.com/writing/best-dst-investments-lease-rollover-exposure-analyzer#research-tool # Best DST Investments: Lease Rollover Exposure Analyzer ## What Is This Article About? This guide explains a tool that maps current rent shares to lease end dates. It shows how much of one rent snapshot belongs to leases ending in each calendar year and near chosen loan or sale events. A fictional example keeps missing rent shares, unknown dates and unused renewal options visible. The tool supports lease research without predicting vacancy, lost income or the best investment for a household. ## Table of Contents - [What the Lease Rollover Analyzer Shows](#what-the-lease-rollover-analyzer-shows) - [Define One Rent Snapshot and Denominator](#define-one-rent-snapshot-and-denominator) - [Enter Lease Dates and Documented Options](#enter-lease-dates-and-documented-options) - [Read Calendar-Year Exposure and Missing Data](#read-calendar-year-exposure-and-missing-data) - [Follow the Fictional Willow Example](#follow-the-fictional-willow-example) - [Compare Lease Ends With Financing and Exit Events](#compare-lease-ends-with-financing-and-exit-events) - [Avoid Double Counting Overlapping Windows](#avoid-double-counting-overlapping-windows) - [Test an Option or Date Change Carefully](#test-an-option-or-date-change-carefully) - [Use the Output for Further DST Research](#use-the-output-for-further-dst-research) - [Save the Map and Preserve Its Limits](#save-the-map-and-preserve-its-limits) - [Frequently Asked Questions](#frequently-asked-questions) - [About Sequoia Research](#about-sequoia-research) - [Sources](#sources) ## What the Lease Rollover Analyzer Shows Lease rollover is the point when a current lease term ends and the next arrangement needs attention. The analyzer groups entered lease end dates into calendar years. It adds the known rent shares in each group. A share describes the selected rent snapshot; it does not estimate the income that will be earned in that future year. The tool also compares those dates with financing and exit events. You can enter a loan maturity, a planned sale or another financing event. A chosen number of days defines the window before and after each event. The output lists nearby lease ends and the known rent shares they represent. This is a date-and-share map. It does not calculate renewal chances, downtime, tenant improvements, leasing commissions, future rent or property value. A lease ending near a loan date can deserve closer review without proving a cash shortage. The tool gives the question a defined scope; the documents and operating analysis still need attention. The OCC's commercial real estate handbook discusses current lease terms, renewal trends and analysis of tenant rollover. That guidance concerns bank supervision. It supplies useful context for reviewing the source records, but does not prescribe this calculator or a safe percentage of expiring rent. [OCC Commercial Real Estate Lending, printed pages 42 and 49](https://www.occ.treas.gov/publications-and-resources/publications/comptrollers-handbook/files/commercial-real-estate-lending/pub-ch-commercial-real-estate.pdf). ## Define One Rent Snapshot and Denominator Choose a property or a clearly defined portfolio. Use one snapshot of annual scheduled base rent for every lease share. In this tool, the denominator is the full scheduled base rent for that scope at that date. Do not mix one tenant's share of collected rent with another tenant's share of leased square feet. For example, a lease with $200,000 of annual scheduled base rent represents 20% of a $1 million full-property base-rent total. The tool asks for the 20%, not the dollar amounts. You must establish that common total outside the tool. It cannot inspect the rent roll or reconcile different documents for you. Exclude expense recoveries and other income from this selected base-rent measure. Keep the definition and source in the common-basis field. If a different income measure is essential to your analysis, prepare a separate model instead of quietly changing one row's denominator. A percent sign does not make unlike measures comparable. The review date cannot be later than the current local date on your device. The rent snapshot cannot follow the review date. Historical snapshots are allowed, but the output continues to name their actual date. A recent review of an old rent roll does not convert its numbers into current operating facts. Confirm that all entered shares use the same full-scope denominator and that you have avoided duplicate lease shares. The tool also rejects repeated lease labels after trimming, case matching and collapsing spaces. Distinct leases for one tenant can have distinct labels. It does not resolve tenant affiliates or check whether different names hide the same lease. ## Enter Lease Dates and Documented Options Each lease needs a unique label and a source reference or explicit assumption. The share and expiry can be left blank when unknown. A blank share remains unknown; a typed zero is a known zero for the model. Percentages accept up to four decimal places, from zero through 100, without a percent sign. Enter the lease expiry before any extension recorded in the next fields. Choose one of four option statuses: not reviewed, no option identified, unexercised option documented, or exercised extension documented. These are your evidence labels. The tool does not read the contract or verify that an option was validly exercised. An unexercised option stays in the notes. It does not move the expiry used in the calculations. Record its terms, conditions and source there. Do not enter a proposed end date in the exercised-extension field merely because the tenant has a right to renew. An exercised extension needs both the earlier expiry and the later extended end date. It also needs a source note. The tool uses the later date only when that status is selected, and requires it to be after the earlier date. Whether the supplied evidence actually establishes an extension remains a document-review question. Keep other rights visible in the notes. Early termination, purchase rights, notice duties and conditions can affect the real analysis. This version does not model those clauses. Its one effective end date per row should not be mistaken for a complete legal reading of the lease. ## Read Calendar-Year Exposure and Missing Data Choose one through ten calendar years, including the snapshot year. The first period starts on the snapshot date and ends December 31. Later periods use full calendar years. Thus a four-year map beginning October 16, 2026 ends December 31, 2029; it does not cover four full years after the starting date. Every expiry is placed into one group: before the snapshot, within the horizon, after the horizon, or unknown. An expiry on the snapshot date belongs in the first year. An expiry on the final December 31 belongs in the last year. All dates must be valid calendar dates from 1900 through 2200. The tool does not erase expired dates that precede the rent snapshot. It displays their known rent shares separately. That result calls for follow-up: the record may need an extension, a holdover explanation or another correction. The date alone does not prove that the tenant stopped paying. Known shares cannot total more than 100%. The amount below 100% is labeled unmapped share. It may belong to rows with unknown shares, leases that were never entered, or both. The tool cannot allocate that remainder among them. Unknown-share row counts appear beside the known percentage in each period. ## Follow the Fictional Willow Example The built-in example uses a rent snapshot dated October 16, 2026 and four calendar years. All names, dates, percentages and source notes are invented. Willow Center has seven entered lease rows, including deliberately missing data. They are teaching inputs, not a real offering or rent roll. | Lease | Share of full snapshot rent | Original expiry | Option treatment | |---|---:|---|---| | Alder A | 20% | April 1, 2027 | No option identified | | Birch B | 25% | June 30, 2027 | Unused option recorded in notes | | Cedar C | 15% | September 30, 2027 | Recorded exercised extension to September 30, 2030 | | Dogwood D | 10% | Unknown | Not reviewed | | Elm E | Unknown | April 30, 2027 | Not reviewed | | Fir F | 10% | December 31, 2026 | No option identified | | Grove G | 5% | September 30, 2026 | Not reviewed | Known shares total 85%, leaving 15% unmapped. The example contains one row with an unknown share. It does not establish that Elm accounts for the entire 15%. Other omitted leases could exist. The full denominator stays in place rather than shrinking to the known 85%. The partial 2026 bucket contains Fir's 10%. The 2027 bucket contains Alder's 20% and Birch's 25%, plus Elm's unknown share. Its result is therefore 45% known, with one unknown-share row. Cedar's recorded extension moves its 15% beyond the horizon, while Dogwood's 10% stays in the unknown-date group. The known-share totals reconcile: 55% ends within the horizon, 15% after it, 5% before the snapshot, and 10% has no expiry. These add to the same 85% mapped total. The empty 2028 and 2029 buckets mean no entered effective expiry falls there. They do not prove that no business risk exists in those years. ## Compare Lease Ends With Financing and Exit Events The example includes a loan maturity on June 30, 2027 and a planned property sale on September 28, 2027. Each event retains a date basis: documented term, planning assumption or unconfirmed. The labels are user-supplied. The tool does not treat a planned sale as a binding exit date. Use a 90-day window before and after each event. Both boundaries are included. Alder's April 1 expiry is exactly 90 calendar days before the June 30 maturity, so it matches. Birch ends on maturity itself and also matches. Elm ends 61 days before maturity, but its rent share remains unknown. The loan window therefore contains known shares totaling 45% of the full snapshot rent, plus one unknown-share row. Its signed day offsets are minus 90, zero and minus 61. Negative means the lease end precedes the event; positive would mean it follows. These are ordinary calendar differences, not business days or legal notice calculations. Birch's June 30 expiry is exactly 90 days before the September 28 planned sale. It appears in that event's window with a 25% share. Alder and Elm fall outside that sale window. Cedar's extended 2030 end date is outside the displayed horizon and is not matched. Both the lease end and the event must fall within the displayed horizon to enter a window result. An event outside the horizon remains visible with an excluded status. A lease outside the horizon is excluded even if it would be close to an event near the boundary. Extend the horizon when that wider question matters. ## Avoid Double Counting Overlapping Windows The loan and sale results overlap because Birch appears in both. Adding 45% and 25% would produce 70%, but that would count Birch's 25% twice. The combined result instead takes each matched lease row once. It shows 45% known share and one unknown-share row near at least one entered event. That combined figure is a share of current scheduled base rent. It is not the chance of a rent loss, the proportion of principal at risk or the expected reduction in distributions. The unknown share remains unresolved. A dated match identifies a question for further work, not a forecast of the tenant's conduct. The output retains each event's matches as well as the combined unique list. You can inspect why a row appears and which source supplied its date. Keep both views. The event view explains a particular financing question, while the combined view prevents an inflated total when several windows touch the same leases. If no events are entered, the yearly lease map still works. The combined matched share will be zero because there are no event windows to test. That result does not establish that the investment has no debt, sale plans or financing needs. It reflects the limited input set. ## Test an Option or Date Change Carefully A simple boundary test changes the window from 90 to 89 days. Alder no longer matches the loan maturity, and Birch no longer matches the planned sale. Birch still matches the loan on the same day, and Elm remains 61 days before it. The combined known share falls to 25%, with the same one unknown-share row. The investment did not become safer when the chosen window became smaller. Only the search rule changed. Save that rule with the result and choose it for a clear research purpose. There is no universal window in the tool and no automatic red, amber or green assessment. A separate evidence test concerns Cedar. If you remove the exercised-extension status and clear the extended date, its original September 30, 2027 expiry becomes effective again. Under the original 90-day window, that date is two days after the planned sale and joins its window. The 2027 known-share bucket rises from 45% to 60%. This test changes the recorded evidence, not the tenant's legal rights. Do not mark an option exercised to produce a more favorable chart. Keep the source for a valid change, and preserve the earlier result if you need a review history. The calculator itself does not maintain prior versions. ## Use the Output for Further DST Research The next step should follow the missing fact. An unknown expiry calls for the lease or amendment. An unknown share calls for a consistent rent schedule. A lease ending before the snapshot calls for a status explanation. A large share near maturity calls for analysis of the actual loan, leasing plan and cash needs. FINRA's private-placement notice discusses covered firms' review of material claims and the need to assess outside work critically. A completed date map does not establish that those duties have been met. Use it as one research aid within the larger offering review. [FINRA Regulatory Notice 23-08](https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/notices/23-08). Keep scenarios separate from actual outcomes. The SEC's performance guidance warns that hypothetical results do not describe actual performance. This tool is narrower still: it maps entered dates and fixed shares, with no future cash-flow model. A low mapped percentage should not be described as a projected investment return or a safety rating. [SEC performance-claims bulletin](https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/general-resources/news-alerts/alerts-bulletins/investor-bulletins-47). ## Save the Map and Preserve Its Limits Every edit clears the prior results and disables export until you analyze again. Invalid entries stay in the form so you can correct them. Adding or removing a row also invalidates the output. There are limits of 40 lease rows and 12 financing or exit events. Loading the example, clearing the form and removing a row require an on-page confirmation. Cancel keeps the entries. Editing while a confirmation is open cancels that pending action. These controls help protect unfinished work, but the tool stores nothing automatically. JSON and text exports include all entered leases, event dates, source notes, assumptions and output groups. They preserve the full record, including rows outside the horizon. This version does not import a saved file, fetch source links or sync data. Save the export before leaving the page if you need the result. ## Frequently Asked Questions ### Does 45% rollover exposure mean rent will fall by 45%? No. It means the entered leases in that group represent 45% of the selected snapshot rent. Renewals, replacement tenants, timing and rents are not forecast. The map shows where further work may be useful, not how much cash will be lost. ### Why does the tool leave renewal options unused? An unexercised option does not establish a later end date for this map. Keep its terms in the notes. Only a recorded exercised extension with both dates and a source changes the effective date. The tool does not verify legal exercise or replace a lease review. ### What does the unmapped rent share include? It is 100% minus the sum of known entered shares. It may cover unknown-share rows, leases not entered or both. The tool cannot assign the remainder. Do not automatically give all of it to the first row with a blank share. ### Why is the first calendar year shorter than twelve months? It begins on the snapshot date and ends December 31. The chosen year count includes that first partial year. This keeps the buckets aligned with calendar years. The displayed start and end dates show the exact period being mapped. ### Can one lease appear beside more than one event? Yes. A lease end can be close to both a loan maturity and a planned sale. Each event retains its own matches. The combined result counts that lease once, so overlapping windows do not inflate the total known rent share. ### Can the tool identify the best DST investment? No. It answers a defined timing question using your inputs. Tenant credit, operating costs, debt terms, price, tax facts and household needs remain outside the calculation. Use the output to ask more precise questions, not to turn a single exposure measure into an overall ranking. ## About Sequoia Research Sequoia Research, LLC provides independent research on DSTs and other real estate investment offerings. This library connects source documents, clearly stated examples and practical questions to support informed research into real estate investments. ## Sources - [OCC Commercial Real Estate Lending](https://www.occ.treas.gov/publications-and-resources/publications/comptrollers-handbook/files/commercial-real-estate-lending/pub-ch-commercial-real-estate.pdf), version 2.0, March 2022; March 20, 2025 annotation. Printed pages 42 and 49 discuss lease terms, renewals and rollover in bank supervision. No prescribed safe rollover threshold is adopted. - [FINRA Regulatory Notice 23-08](https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/notices/23-08), May 9, 2023. Covered-firm investigation of material claims and critical review of outside reports. - [SEC Performance Claims](https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/general-resources/news-alerts/alerts-bulletins/investor-bulletins-47), September 15, 2022. Hypothetical results and stated methods; this map does not calculate future performance. Sources inspected October 16, 2026. Willow and every lease, event and numeric case are fictional. This is an original research tool, not a regulator-prescribed risk test or a review of an actual offering.